January 10, 2010 Open Thread

I posted the latest poll from Massachusetts which shows Scott Brown ahead by a point? Predictions about the last ten days of the campaign?


  1. Lincoln Fillmore says

    With the exception of the birth and resurrection of Jesus, and the restoration of the Gospel (I’m a Mormon), if Scott Brown wins next Tuesday, it will be the greatest day in the history of Earth.

  2. Michael Kennedy says

    There is a factor that could affect Coakley’s turnout and is not well known. She was heavily involved in the Amirault case and every other Mass politician that was involved in that travesty of justice has been retired by the voters. She is the last one.

    The story is here:


  3. Edward Morrissey says

    This is going to be a tough race to poll because the turnout model will be difficult to predict. That’s why the PPP poll shows one thing and the Globe another — well, one of the reasons, anyway. (Don’t forget that PPP got the NY-23 race wrong by a substantial margin, for that reason.)

    I think this race will drive Republicans and independents to the polls to oppose ObamaCare. I’m inclined to think that media polls will miss this and stick with normal turnout models, and get shocked as a result.

    • Duane Patterson says

      ed morrissey, as i live and breathe. i’m shocked, shocked to find you hanging around these parts! welcome, my friend, to the hughniverse! 😀

      • ted trepanier says

        I think he knows good music when he sees it and signed up just because of DuaneFM. I’m afraid you have many, many silent people who like your weekly sing along.

  4. William OBrien says

    Hope for really bad weather…GOPers in carbon unfriendly SUVs will make it to the polls regardless. Less motivated public sector union types, public assistance recepients and trustafarian Leftists (add in the trial lawyers and you have 80% of the Mass Dem party identified) are less likely to battle the elements.

  5. William Douglass says

    Just wire mailed my contribution from Chicago. We have got to take advantage of every opportunity to slay that 2 headed hydra in Congress.

  6. Matthew Gil says

    I hate to say it, but Scott Brown is going to lose because the RNC was too little, too late to recognize that Brown had a chance to take Massachusetts and thus give him all the help that he needs.

    I hope that I am dead wrong.

    • David Lyon says

      I am hoping you are wrong as well. Charles Krauthammer actually suggests that Brown has peaked too soon and will give the dems a chance to get into emergency mode to get out the vote. He suggests underdog candidates do best when they come in under the radar and surge in the final days of the campaign. Lets hope for a miracle that will send fear up the spine of every senator and congressman who is deciding whether or not to support health care.

  7. steve standridge says

    Unfortunately, given the stakes at risk of being lost, I think Brown will be up against a democratic machine that will do everything it can to undermine and defeat this upstart GOPer. They cannot, nor will they, lose this seat. Passing the Health Care Bill is the only hope the dems have for not losing losing control of the House and/or Senate. I know this seems counterintuitive, but insiders have been advising dems that without this bill they can not control the political narrative, which is essential for their success. They have effectively gone all in and have calculated the quicker they implement the plan the quicker they can point to, distort or manipulate the information surrounding its virtues – or, at the very least,allow enough time to pass for the viseral hatred and steam to diminish so that enough of the independents or squishy dems will not vote against them in the fall that it will make enough of a difference to change congresses’ composition. Make no mistake, dem strategists have been keenly aware of the risk to their plan, but they honestly believe, if history is any indication with so many similarly instituted gov’t plans – eventually trepidation and fear fades and gives way to dependency. I suspect they will throw everything thing they have into this Mass. race as well as some other targeted races in the fall (Colorado being one) that it will be sufficient to allow them to minimize loses and retain power. If I fear anything, it is that we on the right have peaked too early and it may be difficult for our side to sustain a high degree of energy against what dems over the last year to get us through the fall elections – and, most certainly though 2012. The psychosis of the right does not lend itself to long, sustained hate campaigns like it does on the left. And, as William Osler once said, “By far the most dangerous foe we have to fight is apathy – indifference from whatever cause, not from a lack of knowledge, but from carelessness, from absorption in other pursuits, from a contempt bred of self satisfaction.” I fear, more than the left, the apathy of the American people – I’m betting the dems are banking on this as well.

    • William Douglass says

      There is no doubt that this race may be impossible to win, but we must battle with all our strength and take advantage of every opportunity we have to send that rock from our slingshot and bring the monster down. If Brown loses close, we will use the momentum to win in other races. If Brown wins, it will be the single largest game changer in politics since the Contract With America.

    • steve standridge says

      Politico’s report (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31530.html) augments my point of the dems mindset and political calculus they’re making with respect to passage of the bill – they firmly believe it will help their election prospects. They’re truly delusional, so don’t discount to what lengths they’ll go to win this seat.

  8. ted trepanier says

    RNC will have nothing to do with a win or loss. This area is so Democrat that it will be Brown to win or lose. Considering the poor ads Coakley has put out there, Brown has a shot. People shouldn’t expect a win. A 55-45 loss would be outstanding by Brown and shake up the establishment.

  9. tginga says

    Real (unobservable) vote: Brown 49, Coakley 47, Kennedy 4. Official, certified vote: Coakley 50.00001, Brown 45.99999, Kennedy 4. Real turnout: about 25%. Certified turnout: about 27-28%.

  10. Matthew Gil says

    I’m also worried that if Brown wins and the results are close, that the election will be ACORNjacked.

    Be on the lookout for ballots to magically appear out of election officials’ car trunks.

  11. Courtney Perrier Bear says

    I sent money. Now all I can do is pray. But, I fear it will be stolen back if he gets it close.

  12. p2_architect says

    I think God has a great sense of humor and it will play out with Scott Brown winning “Ted Kennedy’s seat” and stopping this health care fiasco that the said Kennedy championed. The sun is beginning to rise people!!!!

  13. Glenn Amurgis says

    It is an uphill battle. here is hoping the weather is poor on election day because brown’s side has the energy to go vote.

    On another side, who thing that Croakley is Joe Biden with better hair?

  14. Jack Lavelle says

    Now listen closely, kids, while a Kennedy explains it all for you (from Hotline):

    Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI), speaking with a gaggle of reporters after the (Obama) event, said that while state Sen. Scott Brown (R) offers voters a quick fix, in reality, the problems created by “George Bush and his cronies” are not so easily solved.

    “If you think there’s magic out there and things can be turned around overnight, then you would vote for someone who could promise you that, like Scott Brown,” Kennedy said. “If you don’t, if you know that it takes eight years for George Bush and his cronies to put our country into this hole … then you know we have a lot of digging to do, but some work needs to be done and this president’s in the process of doing it and we need to get Marcia Coakley to help him to do that.”

    (Curiously, Kennedy mentioned Coakley repeatedly during his remarks to reporters, each time referring to her as “Marcia,” not “Martha.”)

  15. Eugenia Slater says

    “If you think there’s magic out there…”
    I thought the magical name was Obama. Funny how reality
    works. GO SCOTT BROWN!!

  16. Rick Franklin says

    Let’s just hope that on Wednesday morning, the voters of Massachusetts can say, “Brownie, you did a heck of a job!”

  17. Joshua Harris says

    Well, my fellow Hugniversians, I did my part today. I voted for Scott Brown in the first competitive Senate election in “Massachusettes” since disco fever was in full swing. The enthusiasm for Brown is like nothing I have seen in my (admittedly short) 30 years, and I am looking for a solid win tonight. Hugh said it best: If it’s not close, they can’t cheat. Go Brown!

    • Duane Patterson says

      Good man! It’s hard to believe there may actually be that many sensible people residing in Massachusetts, but I’m heartened at the prospects tonight. Go Scott Go!

  18. steve standridge says

    does anyone have an extra crow I can eat? This is why I’m a disaster planner and responder! Let’s those repubs in washington don’t fall back into their old habits and make the wrong assumptions – lest we will be back at square one again. For the time being – what a great night and an absolute rebuke of the Obama administration!!!

    • Duane Patterson says

      i hear crow tastes a bit like chicken, so season it to taste. it still is a great night, and not many will hold you to what you said before.

      • steve standridge says

        trust me…crow’s can be a bitter cut of meat – just ask the dems today. However, if I have to eat it Brown’s victory makes it taste like sirloin!