Election Prediction and Commentary Thread, Plus A Pitch For “The Good and Faithful Servant”

Well friends, what are the predictions for Tuesday’s four races –VA, NJ, New York’s 23rd and CA’s 10th? Virginia will be a wipeout, and I think Hoffman wins as the power of new media will have successfully conveyed to the Republicans in New York’s 23rd that to keep the seat they have to vote for the Conservative Party’s Hoffman. If Dave Harmer actually beat Garamendi in CA’s 10th that would be a stunner with far reaching implications, but I don’t expect it. Virginia will be a wipe-out and that will be a huge message to Congressional Democrats cosnidering Obamacare. The problem is they may be in too deep already to see any advantage in retreat, though Evan Bayh, Blanche Lincoln and Michael Bennet –senators from red to purple states– will have to study the VA results closely. And please let me know if any among you have adopted The Good and Faithful Servant for your small group study. I’d like to find a few test groups that will let me knopw how it works out.


  1. Joshua Harris says

    From politico a few minutes ago: “Scozzafava bows out of NY-23 race”
    I guess Hoffman has the 23rd sewn up !

  2. John Mar says

    Hi Hugh,

    The WeeklyStandard has the news that Scozzafava has dropped out, which should put Hoffman in the lead for NY-23. This sends a terrific message to the national Republican party that we are tired of them putting RINO’s or DIABLO’s up as candidates in red or purple districts.

    The media will try their best to discount the VA win. The political class will take note and hopefully this will be enough to derail Obamacare.

    The real nail-biter now becomes the NJ race. Obama has pulled out all the stops and the (D)’s even have Perot-lite helping them out. The state is so blue that the crew at MSNBC would probably immolate themselves (figuratively) if Christie won.

    CA-10 is another matter. The (R) is virtually a scarlet letter around here. However, Washington’s big spending has gotten alot of people energized; let’s hope.

    All in all, the lesson may be that the Republican party needs to reclaim the title of the small government and low tax party. The party needs to go back to first principles of security, fiscal responsibility, and promoting the family.

    TEA time anyone?

    • Hugh Hewitt says

      Hi John: Just got back froma run and saw that. Hoffman should win going away and it will be a long time before a small group of liberal Republicans trys to foist a pro-choice, pro-card check, pro-taxc hike, pro-stimulus nominee on the party in a back room deal.

  3. NeoConScum says

    IF the ACORN Types allied to the Dems are kept minimalized in New Jersey, Christie may pull it off–Please Gawd! IF that happens, it sends an absolutely wonderful message.

  4. Justin Flavin says

    no offence to Hofmann – i’m sure he’s genuine -but can someone change his picture in the banner on his site?


    the times that we are in deserve a bit more of a serious look.

    ( sorry folks – i’ve come across left wing blogs that are pointing this out.. yeah – its not the substance and all that.. but there you go.. its the small things that matter in this media war. )

  5. Justin Flavin says

    i’m thinking more of a Fred Thompson brooding, thinking look.. or even a Reagan with a serious but a smile look.

    outright full on smile equates to : “you are not serious”. lefties will pick up on this – i guarantee you. and they will pummel this to the end of the earth.

    get a better picture up there.

  6. Justin Flavin says

    “And please let me know if any among you have adopted The Good and Faithful Servant for your small group study. I’d like to find a few test groups that will let me know how it works out.”

    the good and faithful servant, as a title , is something myself as an Irish rebel just reels away from. we had enough problems with the British.

    what is your idea regarding this book? surely it cannot be subserviance to government? i doubt that. so my question is – what is it? what is the main idea?

    • Hugh Hewitt says

      Mark: That is a pretty fair comment, but on behalf of the NRCC, they didn’t pick the GOP nominee, the knucklehaded local party chairmen did, and the NRCC supported the party nominee in a special election that the whole country was watching and began to do so before Hoffman gained momentum.

      She is in fact a very good example of everything wrong with American politics –pure ambition without any ideological moorings, not powered by vindictiveness because voters didn’t care for her. The idea of accepting all that money and then endorsing the democrat is very startling, but not the NTCC’s fault –her fault, and the fault of the boneheads who nominated her without regard to the Republicans they were supposed to represent.

  7. David Dunn says

    For you lurkers out there, get involved! You’ll feel proud of your self for doing it. I contributed just last week to Hoffman, Harmer in CA 10 and Bob McDonnell for VA Gov a few weeks ago. Now with Hoffman and McDonnell looking good I feel great today. When we turn back the left in this country you too will justifiably feel that you contributed to our successes. Do what you can. Make more money/spend less and contribute to conservatives and/or make calls to on-the-fence Congressmen to resist Obamacare. The marginal efforts of large numbers of previously apathetical individuals can be crucial. Make your life significant.

  8. says

    My thoughts on this Tuesday

    If Republicans win in..

    1. VA- speed bump for the Obama administration. They are going to have to look in the rear view mirror and take a good review. They are not alarmed but need to rethink a bunch of things

    2. NY- another speed bump but outlook is getting dim. This might have a warrant to look at the undercarriage. Things are getting out of hand and Obama needs to pull in some things. Dems need to start getting nervous for 2010.

    3. NJ – shot across the bow. This would be full-scale alert. Defcon 1. Obama has to rethink strategy. Dems are on full notice for jobs on the line.

    4. CA – not going to happen. Yet look at election results to show trend. <60% Dem win could mean bad things for Dems future in 2010.

  9. Justin Flavin says

    and the maddening thing about it is that no journalist in the uk dare question the NHS failings. its gospel that the nhs is “all good” and that the nurses are angels and that we should have socialised medicine.

    a trip to america is looked on as just a charity event – and it has nothing to do with our nhs of course.

    if you want to see obamacare in 20 years time – look at britain. THAT is what is coming your way.

  10. Tom Freeman says

    Heading out shortly to vote for Harmer. Even my Democrat wife is voting for Harmer (mainly because she dislikes Garamendi, not because she is so enthralled by Harmer). We will see what happens.

    • Duane Patterson says

      it is such a heavily democratic district, to me, it’s telling if harmer keeps it to five points or less. if he were to do that, then i think even people like barbara boxer begin to feel a little uncomfortable about their electoral safety next year. the gop tsunami is coming, but i’m afraid you might live in an area that is at very high democratic altitude.

  11. David Lyday says

    I can’t get e-mails to the Blue Dogs because their sites screen by ZIP code. I did discover this info for contacting Blue Dog leadership that some might find useful. It is linked through the Blue Dog button on sites such as Heath Shuler’s, so I assume it is legit. I have called Heath Shuler and plan to fax them all. They may be very receptive by this time tomorrow.

    Blue Dog Leadership
    Blue Dog Co-Chair for Administration: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL)
    Blue Dog Co-Chair for Policy: Rep. Baron Hill (IN-09)
    Blue Dog Co-Chair for Communications: Rep. Jim Matheson (UT-02)
    Blue Dog Whip: Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11)

    Contact the Blue Dogs:
    Kristen Hawn
    Communications Director

  12. Michael Metott says

    I went out and voted for Hoffman today and I must say it was the best I have felt voting for someone in some time. The N.Y. Republican party came out for McCain before I had a chance to vote for Romney in the primary last year, which lead me to register as a Conservative, and as for Dede Scozzafava, well, when early on I received a letter from John McCugh, who sided with the Democrats to pass the so called stimulus, then went on to be Secretary of the Army for Obama, saying he was backing Scozzafava, I knew I would not be voting for her, enough with the RINOS or DIABLOS as the great Mark Steyn calls them, go Hoffman go!

    • Justin Flavin says

      thumbs up from here. the world needs a free america. and you my friend have voted for countless thousands of us outside of america, if not millions, who are dismayed by the way america is heading. you voted FOR US.

      thank you.

    • Justin Flavin says

      by the way – i live in the UK – and the general impression of obama is one of – to paraphrase – “hasnt he heard of the berlin wall?”

      seems like you americans are going through your experience of Marxism. it aint nice is it? now imagine 60 years of socialism. thats why the Poles and Czechs are your buddies… oh wait.. they arent cos Obama sold them out.

      swear to god – the next administration will have a ton of bridge building to do.

  13. David Less says

    The 80% VA and 90% NJ exit polls stating the economy has them worried…

    Does Obama get it yet> Junk Healthcare AND Cap and Tax….

    Suicide for the Dems….

  14. says

    I went to vote last night in Texas. There were no special elections for candidates and only constitutional amendments. Yet the voter turnout was really impressive. You have to really wonder. The people are getting organized and engaged!

  15. Jody Steel says

    Reading all kinds of interpretations on Hoffman’s defeat, mostly relating to the socons and how social issues will defeat R’s or conservatives who focus on them. Mostly written by moderate R’s.

    To me the numbers say that if the R’s had chosen Hoffman from the outset, he could have won.

    I’m personally a social conservative too, but feel the winnable issues are fiscal at this time. The notion that the public doesn’t want social issues at the federal level may have some legs, but it seems that ought to apply similarly to the feds regulating our light bulbs, toilets, health care, etc. etc.

    • Justin Flavin says

      the photo on his website didnt help – made him look like a nutter.

      no offense intended, just being brutally honest about it.

      i note that today , the photo has actually changed to what was there before in the run up to the election


      my advice for future campaigns like this – call Karl Rove. PR and image is everything. and dont take it for granted.

  16. Justin Flavin says

    folks – you gotta check this headline out on CNN.. a “liberal” media outlet


    imagine if townhall or freerepublic carried a headline like that. staggering.

    So nobody at CNN even though for ONE MINUTE that maybe folks of African-American extraction are not one amorphous mass of Obama loving zombies? Oh – they are “black” and they are inspired by Obama, because his skin pigment is the same. So lets all lump them in together and call them “black men”

    Looking forward to FreeRepublic doing a piece on how “white men” are rallying behind Mark Levin. Err.. aint going to happen is it?

    I don’t like calling the R word, but in this case it warranted against CNN. And no doubt there will be no woo-hah in the New York Times over this.

    Sorry for the ramble – just dumbfounded that CNN can get away with this.

    • Duane Patterson says

      they’re technically not getting away with much, since they were fourth among cable viewership on an election night. no one’s watching them.

  17. Justin Flavin says

    by the way – i note that Daily Kos focussed on the Hoffmann loss today. of course they would – it diverts attention from the staggering GOP wins in Virginia and solid Dem New Jersey.

    i did think that Virginia could be won, but never thought that New Jersey could be won from the Dem machine – that is a staggering victory.

    and well done to all involved in that one. i’ve got hope in America again.